Strategic Scenarios: Leading Through Uncertainty Without Getting Lost

Why do we need strategic scenarios?

Most leaders still plan as if the world were predictable. They create detailed plans, assume variables are controllable, and work toward the "most likely future."

The problem? The future never arrives as predicted.

Think back to 2020: how many organizations had a global pandemic in their strategic plan?

Or, more recently, how many predicted the speed with which Artificial Intelligence would invade business processes?

This is where strategic scenarios come in: not as a crystal ball, but as a mental laboratory for training flexibility.

What are strategic scenarios?

Scenarios are not predictions—they are narratives.

Unlike a forecast, which attempts to guess what will happen, a scenario is a plausible story about what the future might look like.

For example:

• Scenario 1 (optimistic): Regulation is flexible, technology advances rapidly, and customers are prepared.
• Scenario 2 (pessimistic): Regulation tightens, customers resist, and investment declines.
• Scenario 3 (disruptive): An unexpected competitor emerges and changes the rules of the game.

By creating these narratives, the team trains its mind to think non-linearly, opening space for creativity and strategic realism.

The risks of not creating strategic scenarios

The risk is getting stuck in the "central scenario."

Many companies do the exercise but end up falling back into the same old routine:

• They choose the "most likely" scenario and plan only for it.
• The other scenarios are forgotten in a drawer.

This mistake is critical. Because the advantage of scenarios isn't in predicting what will happen, but in identifying robust decisions that work across multiple futures.

Examples of companies that create strategic scenarios

In the 2000s, IKEA realized that its business model—large stores on the outskirts of cities—could be threatened by several trends. So it created strategic scenarios for the future of retail:

1. "Intense urbanization" scenario: People would live in denser cities, without cars, with less space for bulky furniture.
   1. Action: Develop smaller urban stores, closer to the consumer, and invest in delivery services.
2. "Accelerated digitalization" scenario: E-commerce would dominate, with customers expecting fast and convenient shopping.
   1. Action: Invest heavily in online platforms and interactive apps.
3. "Sustainable consumption" scenario: Customers would demand ecological and circular products.
   1. Action: Create sustainable product lines, with recycled materials and buyback services.

Result: IKEA didn't choose just one scenario. It prepared for all of them simultaneously—and today it has a digital presence, in nearby stores, and as a leader in sustainability.

During the 1990s, Shell used energy scenarios to anticipate oil price shocks. They didn't predict dates or prices—but they had plans to react to different scenarios. When the crisis hit, they were better prepared than their competitors.

Many renewable energy companies have scenarios for "favorable regulation" and "political pressure against subsidies." This preparation allows them to quickly adjust their strategy without compromising sustainability.

How to Use Scenarios to Lead Better

1. Identify Forces of Change

Ask: "What external factors—technological, regulatory, social, environmental—could shape our industry?"
(E.g., generative AI, new EU rules, climate change, new competitors).

2. Explore How These Forces Can Interact

A single force rarely changes everything. It's the intersection between them that creates disruption.
(E.g., AI + rigid regulation → a different future than AI + flexible regulation).

3. Build narratives of plausible futures

Go beyond tables and graphs. Create stories: "If this scenario comes to fruition, what will the customer be like? What about the competition? What about our internal culture?"
(This helps the team visualize, rather than just analyze.)

4. Review current mental models

Use scenarios to question assumptions: "Are we assuming the customer will always want X? What if they stop wanting it?"
(Scenarios serve to challenge thinking habits.)

5. Identify robust decisions and create action plans

Ask: "Which choices make sense in any scenario?" and "Which bets depend on a specific scenario but can be prepared as a contingency?"
(This is where the highest-value strategic decisions come in.)

6. Use the new models to prepare the organization

Transform scenarios into a living strategy: align investments, set priorities, and train teams for adaptability.
(The goal is not to choose the right scenario, but to be prepared for whatever comes.)

Tips for applying strategic scenarios

Reflect on these questions:

• When was the last time you prepared your team for the unlikely?
• What decisions are you making today that only make sense in a single future?
• What investment would you make if you knew the future could change radically in two years?

At your next team meeting, ask:

• What are the two most critical uncertainties for our business?
• What two extreme scenarios could arise from these uncertainties?
• What robust decision can we make now, valid in both scenarios?

This short exercise is a first step in transforming planning into a real strategic advantage.

Conclusion

Strategic scenarios don't eliminate uncertainty.

But they do something more powerful: they transform uncertainty into clarity of action.

Ultimately, it's not about predicting the future.

It's about leading with confidence even without certainty—because those who explore multiple paths never get stuck at a crossroads.

Isabel Freire de Andrade

Bright Concept's CEO